Uncertain temperature as divide between cold and milder air close to Northern Scotland into the new week!
Rising freezing level this evening means consolidating snow at lower to mid mountain levels, so no road issues with snow on Sunday morning. However, it now looks like a soggy start at road level in the East. Significant uncertainty on Central Highland temperatures through into mid-week before colder air likely pushes in from the North or NE, see forecast discussion below.
Been out on the slopes - please send us your photos to the email address at the foot of this page.
All the East Coast access roads are open and clear at time of update and the freezing level is expected to rise to around the higher Munros overnight. Unfortunately there is now a Met Office Yellow Weather Warning for rain covering the SE Highlands and it looks like snow will be restricted to the highest tops at best for a period overnight. So a rather soggy start on Sunday unfortunately, but the worst of the weather does look to be overnight into the early part of Sunday morning post dawn period, thereafter MWIS have precipitation not amounting to much.
In terms of snow cover, the East has fared best recently and with the persistence of winds from the SE quadrant it is Glenshee that has seen the most snowfall accumulate. However it looks like lower down will be pretty soggy at Glenshee to start Sunday, but that the snowpack was a bit more granular and spring like by the end of Saturday lower down may help drain overnight rain through the snowpack. While the forecast is not what those going for a Sunday slide want to see, if the forecast for later in the week of considerably colder air digging in from the NE, then this could ultimately help consolidate a robust base.
Glenshee anticipates to operate all lifts on the front and back of Sunnyside on Sunday, plus all Cairnwell lifts except the 2 South facing T-bars on Carn Aosda. Significant further digging out and storm recovery work is required to get uplift running on Meall Odhar and push up the other side of the middle valley and onwards to Coire Fionn.
Speaking of which, there was an avalanche on Glas Maol on Saturday in which walkers were caught up. Please check SAIS reports, as overnight rain is anticipated to cause a heightened risk on Sunday morning due to wet snow instabilities developing.
Surprisingly Glenshee for a time and perhaps less surprising given the general wind direction, Nevis Range had the best visibility on Saturday. The milder air and dampness from overnight rain is not encouraging for a similar clearance at Glenshee on Sunday and Nevis may well fare best or least bad in the visibility stakes.
The Lecht has good cover on the fenced runs of machine groomed packed snow which will be softening on Sunday, Buzzard side has wide cover and the magic carpet area is in great shape for novices. It was the Lecht and Glencoe that copped it worst for visibility on Saturday.
Both Glencoe and CairnGorm are down to run all but 1 tow each on Sunday, so both will be offering the full on mountain vertical of 1400ft and 1750ft respectfully. On CairnGorm the Funicular should be going from more or less the get go on Sunday, offering 1550ft of non surface uplift vertical with a mix of green, blue and red terrain accessible from the train. While the Daylodge and West Wall Poma combo will provide an alternative route to the top station for advanced skiers and boarders. The Daylodge Run has been the best route to base.
At Glencoe, the cover has improved quite considerably on the top half of the Plateau area this past week, but has just slightly waxed and waned at the bottom of the Plateau. Routes were skiable to the base of the Poma and Rannoch Chairlift, but not really suitable for green run riders. For early intermediates / confident snowplough turners, the Coire Pollach Tow serving the loop round via the Cafe from Old Mugs Alley is much better. Overall though Glencoe is best suited to more advanced riders at present as the best riding by far is on the upper mountain, but the visibility has been persistently poor on the upper mountain and it looks like it will remain murky on Sunday.
Nevis Range opened the Alpha Button on Saturday morning, with the Goose T-bar coming on around lunch time. Both are due to operate on Sunday and visibility away from the very top of the Goose was markedly better than Glencoe on Saturday, but that is not a guarantee it will be the same on Sunday. Goose Gully has caught loads of snow with the sustained SE wind. Yorkies is in good shape off Alpha and the Home Run / Rabbit Run provide a return from the Goose to outside the Top Station. Nevis have only released snowsports tickets for Sunday so far, potentially stronger SE winds again into next week, which is a particularly problematic direction for the lifts at Nevis, so check for updates.
The Sledge Park at the Plateau Cafe is in excellent condition! It is advisable to arrive before 2pm at the latest for sledging to get a decent amount of time on the hill. First chair up at 9am, last chair up maybe earlier than usual due to numbers already on the hill at the weekend, so arrive before 3pm for sight seeing at the LATEST! Last chair down scheduled for 4pm. Sledge Park will be much quieter during the week, even though there are a few areas on half term already.
There has been some new snow over the past few days at both Weardale and Yad Moss, but not yet sufficient to open and the freezing level looks like going above the tops again by Saturday.
For both Weardale and Allenheads, you need to join the club with a season pass, these are still available for both at this time.
Please check club access rules / availability if not a club member / pass holder.
Weardale: https: //skiweardale.com/ .
Allenheads:
http://ski-allenheads.co.uk/ .
Yad Moss: https: //yadmoss.co.uk/ .
Raise: https: //www.ldscsnowski.co.uk/ .
At 6pm in the West at the Glencoe SSC hut (850m) the temperature was -0.2°c. At the Top of the Access (671m) it was +1.4°c. At Base level (366m) it was +3.5°c with a SE breeze at 3 gusting 9mph.
The SAIS summit AWS on Aonach Mor was reporting -1.2°c. The Met Office station was reporting a South Easterly at 19 gusting 38mph. At the CIC Hut (680m) it was -2.6°c. At Tulloch Station (237m) the temperature was +5.2°c.
In the East the Met Office Summit AWS on CairnGorm reported -1.4°c, while the Heriot Watt AWS reported an SE wind at a mean of 41 gusting 44mph. At Aviemore the temperature at 6pm was +5.1°c.
The Met Office Cairnwell AWS reported -0.1°c with a South Easterly at 24 gusting 38mph.
Some locations are now on half term. Monday to Wednesday of the new week will be busier than usual weekdays, Thursday probably about normal, before the busiest half term period from Friday to the following Wednesday, when several councils local to the ski areas have long weekends that coincide with the peak week for English Half Term.
All areas will be busier and particularly on the equipment hire front. If you have your own equipment, bring it is the best advice that can be given! Safely fitting equipment takes time. If you need to hire and hiring off-site on route to the mountain can work for you, that means you are ready to go when you hit the mountain.
If you need to hire on the mountain, book equipment hire in advance, that allows equipment to be pre-setup, significantly speeding up the process in the morning.
Carparks at Glenshee and CairnGorm are likely to reach capacity on peak days, on CairnGorm shuttle buses will operate from Coire na Ciste from around 9am. Please remember that there are currently no facilities at the Ciste Carpark.
At Glenshee the A93 Cairnwell Pass is a Clearway either side of and through the ski area, do not park on the road!
With considerably more snow in the East, Glencoe is unlikely to have carpark issues over the next few days, but to keep things organised, larger 4wd vehicles please park in the top carpark above the Ticket Office. Only cars and small vans in the main carpark area, please DO NOT block either the top or bottom exit of the carpark lanes as sight seeing visitors and sledgers will be arriving and departing throughout the day!
Campervans wishing to stay overnight will find the most level areas around the permitter of the overflow carpark.
The freezing level is creeping up and unfortunately it is going to rain at most, possibly all levels of the East Coast areas overnight, the worst may come around the dawn period of Sunday morning, after which things should improve. For Glenshee it will be a soggy start and while precipitation for much of the day should be lighter, it does not look like it will be possible to stay in the snow zone there with snow only likely high on the highest parts of the open terrain.
There is a Met Office Yellow Rain warning covering a swath of the East / SE Highlands through until 9am Sunday, so take care on the roads in the morning as there could be a fair bit of surface water.
On CairnGorm the Top Basin may just about get away with snow showers if you stay up there, but precipitation should be lighter and less persistent from mid morning. Munro Level temperature looks to be around +1°c. Moderate SE winds generally, but more gusty late in the night possibly through into the post dawn period with gusts to 40 to 50mph before moderating.
At this stage it now looks as if we will have at least a milder blip for a day or two at the start of the new week as winds initially turn Southerly on Monday, which may give some respite from the hill fog for the Northern Cairngorms (thus Mon could be a good shout for CairnGorm and the Lecht potentially), but there is substantial uncertainty about temperature for the Central Highlands, that uncertainty peaking towards mid-week as the snowsports areas lie very close to a sharp divide between colder and much milder air than recently.
To underline that uncertainty, on Wednesday for 850hpa level temperature in the Central Highlands, the GFS ensembles have a 9.4°c spread, the Met Office MOGREPS has a 8.4°c spread, while the ECMWF EPS has a 9.4°c spread!
The GFS and MOGREPS are similar on Thursday, but the ECMWF EPS has a lower spread of 4.5°c and shows much stronger confidence for colder air already moving in to Northern and NE Scotland, with the ECMWF AI model being even more bullish for colder air being established by Thursday.
In the shorter term looking at detail, wintry showers on hills exposed to the Southerly wind in the East, around +1 to +2°c at Munro Level on Monday, likely dry and overcast in the West Highlands, but potentially some brightness developing around the Northern edge of the Cairngorms. Light to moderate Southerly.
Tuesday looks to see more widespread precipitation, probably a wintry mix of rain, with sleet / snow at highest elevations with Munro Level temperature between 0 and +3°c, most likely towards +2 or +3°c. Freshening SE winds, but not as high as it looked like being last night, around 20 to 30, gusting 40mph, perhaps 50mph in areas more prone to accelerating SE wind.
The five day trend outlooks for Wednesday and Thursday roughly follow the mean of the forecast scenarios, there is a fairly even chance of being milder or colder than these projections at this time. By Friday the spread in the forecast output reduces and the balance of probabilities tilts quite favourably towards colder air digging in either from the North or NE.
Lowther Hill: Leadhills webcam is online (24/7).
GLENCOE: All mountain webcams online and the first updated images are from the Top of the Access Chair are around 7am, other cams come on by 7.30am. Sledge Park camera streams overnight. The mid mountain weather station wind direction is not working, other data valid.