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Unsettled, frequently stormy and savage thaw/freeze cycling ahead!

This Report for the Scottish Highlands was issued at
18.40hrs Wednesday 19th February 2025.
Severe Gale or Storm Force winds to end the week. Snowsports uplift is unlikely beyond roadside beginner slopes in the East, but even these could be affected by the weather. Even if lifts operate, overhead will be foul on Thursday morning, traveling any distance is not advised without an alternative plan for the day!

Strong SE winds on Wednesday prevented the Nevis Gondola from running, while Glencoe managed the whole day on Wednesday, but the wind is now turning and weather is closing in. Cloud was back down onto the Plateau by the time the lifts closed after a bright morning and early afternoon.

With the winds turning away from the favoured SE direction, to the more turbulent and unpredictable Southerly direction, it is more likely than not that Glencoe will get the full force of the forecast mountain wind speeds or more during Thursday and Friday. The prospect for uplift running on Thursday morning is very poor, but there is a brief break in the weather possible on Thursday afternoon. Whether this is arrives early enough, or brings a significant enough temporary moderation in wind to allow uplift to open for the afternoon remains to be seen. Certainly it does not look like a day for rushing off early, the weather at opening time looks more appropriate for kayaking than skiing, so check AM updates and the latest forecasts!

In the East there should not be any road issues from snow in the morning, but there is a risk of some wind related disruption. While the roadside novice areas maybe able to open and the overhead wont be quite as bad as it is forecast to be in the West, the changes of the longer runs Glenshee has managed to reopen over the past 2 days surviving the night / Thursday morning looks low.

However, there is a chance that afternoon showers and evening precipitation may fall as snow on higher terrain, but this is not certain and it will revert to rain to summit level before Friday AM.

The current forecasts suggest a relative lull between weather systems on Saturday, timing and extent of this may well shift as forecast detail is not nailed on yet. Whether anything can open for snowsports remains to be seen, on balance it is unlikely that anything other than the machine made snow beginner areas in the East will be available and even if the snow cover survives on these relatively intact, it may need time to dry out if the Friday deluge is particularly bad.

There is quite a margin both favourable and not either side of the deterministic model output at even short range. Cooler unsettled conditions do look to become established at the start of next week, the question is whether anything resembling a meaningful natural snow base remains for new snow to build on.

Probably the best we can hope for is a slight storm gain from wind driven wet snow that puts the upper mountain in the right direction at Glencoe, even though that is likely to be at the expense of losing the Plateau and mid-mountain for the time being.

:: Glencoe Sledge Park
Please check Access Chairlift status and latest weather / forecasts before travelling to Glencoe over the coming days!

The sledge park remains full length and full width and is complimentary with any chairlift or ski pass. The Plateau Cafe is open daily (weather permitting) until 3pm. If going sledging is recommended to arrive by 2pm to get a reasonable length of time on the mountain. The magic carpet is available for general use for novice skiers / boarders subject to space required by ski school.

:: CairnGorm Funicular Update
Late on Christmas Eve HIE and CML slipped out word that the CairnGorm Funicular will remain out of service until further notice. The latest update that surprises no one is that it will not be open for February Half Term.

:: England Club Fields
Both Yad Moss and Weardale were open on Saturday, though the thin cover was getting worn and retreating by later in the afternoon. Neither run on Sunday and will need more snow to reopen.

Please check club access rules / availability if not a club member / pass holder.

Weardale: https: //skiweardale.com/ .
Allenheads:
http://ski-allenheads.co.uk/ .
Yad Moss: https: //yadmoss.co.uk/ .
Raise: https: //www.ldscsnowski.co.uk/ .
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:: Mountain Weather
At 6pm in the West at the base of Glencoe at 366m the temperature was +3.0°c, dew point was +0.4°c, with a South wind at 12 gusting 28 mph.

The SAIS AWS at the top of the Summit Tow was reporting -1.5°c on Aonach Mor. The Met Office Summit Run AWS at (1130m) remains offline. The Tower 17 AWS on the Gondola was reporting a SSE wind at 35 gusting 48 mph. At Tulloch Station (237m) the temperature was +4.5°c.

In the East the CairnGorm the Met Office Summit AWS (4084ft/1245m) was reporting a temperature of -2.2°c with a South wind at 47 gusting 72mph. Aviemore was at +5.1°c.

The Cairnwell AWS reported -0.6°c (3061ft /934m), with a South wind at a mean of 37 gusting 47 mph.

:: Mountain Forecast Discussion
Overnight strengthening wind is expected to mix out remaining layers and pools of cold before dawn, however heavy frontal rain will be into the West before this occurs in all areas so a further period of heavy freezing rain is possible in some locations during the overnight period.

This could at least in some areas reduce the thaw damage, if a freezing rain crust forms, for a time more rainwater will run straight off, but once the freezing level is fully above the tops, the low cloud and wind driven rain will quickly soften the crust and a sharp thaw will set in.

The heaviest rain and strongest winds will be through the post dawn period in the West on Thursday and probably mid morning in the Southern Cairngorms. Towards the North of the Cairngorms the rain will be more showery throughout. There is uncertainty on timing of when the back edge of the overnight frontal rain will clear Western Coastal mountains but mid morning to lunchtime, a marked improvement in overhead conditions should move in from the West with snow showers on the top and some brighter or sunny spells. As this occurs it will be particularly gusty and turbulent with a risk of lightning, before wind veers towards SW or WSW and moderate to some degree for a number of hours.

Post dawn expect wind to be widely around 50 gusting 80mph on the tops, possibly 60+ with gusts to 90mph before the main rain band clears out in the West, and more persistently on and near the Cairngorm Plateau. Munro Level temperature peaking at +3 to +5°c, but dropping later into the afternoon to 2°c from the West, possibly close to 0°c late afternoon or by dusk.


Friday looks even rougher with Storm Force Southerly winds, potentially Hurricane Force on the higher mountains for a time, with particularly heavy rain on South facing slopes. While the rain totals will not be significantly worse in the Angus Hills and Southern Cairngorms than the West Highlands, the fact that such totals in short time frames are more unusual for that area could cause issues. Wind speeds at / above Munro Level widely in the 60 to 70mph bracket for a good part of Friday, so gusts to 90 towards 100mph likely on exposed tops / ridges.

The freezing level will be well above the summits Friday AM with +5 to +7°c possible, before temperatures start to fall back later in the day, new snow accumulations at height from Thursday afternoon / evening will melt adding to run off. Potentially 5 to 10cm of backedge snow on higher mountains late afternoon or evening again onFriday!

Saturday at this stage looks to see a relative lull compared to Friday and Sunday. What remains to be seen is whether wind speeds become academic for lift served snowsports due to snow loss and whether the lull between storm systems matches up to daylight and lift operating hours on Saturday.

Unless there is a significant shift in the forecast both Friday and Sunday look a write off with horrendous mountain conditions. Beyond the rough ride into the weekend, a cooler, unsettled pattern looks likely next week.

:: Webcams and Weather Stations
Lowther Hill: Leadhills webcam is back online after intermittent power / comms issues in the wake of Storm Eowyn (4 Feb).

GLENCOE: All webcams online and the first updated images will be from around 7.30am. Base AWS online. The summit weather station was damaged by nearby lightning and is out of service.

tricky
Northern Cairngorms Outlook
sun-rain-showers.png
Friday 21st February
FL: >Tops.  Showers
914m: 7°c South 80-110mph
part-sun-part-cloud.png
Saturday 22nd February
FL: 3500ft.  Part Cloudy
914m: 1°c SW 40 gust 60mph
More... 
  21.10hrs Thu 20th Feb
West Highlands Outlook
rain.png
Friday 21st February
FL: >Tops.  Heavy Rain
914m: 5°c South 60-90mph
sun-snow-showers.png
Saturday 22nd February
FL: 3000ft.  Snow Showers
914m: 0°c SW 30 gust 50mph
More... 
  21.02hrs Thu 20th Feb
Southern Cairngorms Outlook
rain.png
Friday 21st February
FL: >Tops.  Rain
914m: 6°c South 50-80mph
part-sun-part-cloud.png
Saturday 22nd February
FL: 4000ft.  Part Cloudy
914m: 2°c SW 25 gust 40mph
More... 
  21.11hrs Thu 20th Feb
Glencoe // Tue 18 Feb 2025
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Brightened up during Tuesday afternoon, best of the rest of the week is Wednesday morning! Get what sliding you can, while you can!
Glencoe // Sun 16 Feb 2025
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A better view today from the top of the Cliffy! Much better visibility and it brightened up through Sunday afternoon.
Glencoe // Sat 15 Feb 2025
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Instructor for some contrast on the Low Road! Cloud base is expected to be higher Sunday, lifting more in the afternoon.
CairnGorm Mtn // Fri 14 Feb 2025
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Small park laid out beside the beginner area carpets outside the Daylodge.
The Lecht // Thu 13 Feb 2025
>>>
Nursery slopes in great shape for half term, but not enough snow for any main lifts.


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